Grand National Ante Post Preview

Sadly, the Cheltenham Festival 2009 is behind us but we can look forward to the Spring Double starting with Aintree Festival starting on April 2 with the showpiece event the John Smiths Grand National on April 4 -  less than 3 weeks away.

If you are considering having an ante post bet on the Grand National the following key trends may help.

We’ve studied the profile of all horses available up to 33-1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing, key trends to help you make considered judgements when trying to pick the winner of the world’s most famous horse race.

• Only 1 horse has carried more than 11 stone to victory since Corbiere in 1983 (Hedgehunter 11-01 in 2005) so take out Chelsea Harbour, Cloudy Lane, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander, Madison de Berlais, Notre Pere, Snowy Morning and War of Attrition.
• A 7 year old has not won the Grand National since 1940 and only one 8 year old has won since Party Politics in 1992 (Bindaree in 2002) so take out 7 year olds Big Fella Thanks and Cant Buy Time 8 year olds Hear The Echo and Irish Invader.
• A French bred has not won since 1909 so take out Butlers Cabin, Mon Mome, My Will and Garde Champetre.
• Only 1 horse since Reynoldstown in 1936 has won back to back Grand Nationals (Red Rum 1974+75) so take out Comply or Die.
• Seagram in 1991 was the last horse to win the National having won at the Cheltenham Festival so take out Character Building.
• 9 of the last 10 winners have run 4 times or more that season so take out King Johns Castle who has yet to run this season and State of Play.
• The Irish have an incredible recent history in the Grand National.  They’ve won 6 of the last 10 despite less than 20% of the field being Irish trained.
• Irish trained horses have occupied 10 of the 20 places in the last 5 Nationals from 27% of the total runners of the last 5 years so it makes sense to concentrate on horses under the stewardship of Irish trainers so take out Rambling Minster and Kilbeggan Blade.

So, that leaves us with a shortlist of 4 horses:

Black Apalachi - best priced 12-1 with Blue Square
Southern Vic - best priced 25-1 with Blue Square
Himalayan Trail - best priced 40-1 with SportingBet
Preists Leap - best priced 50-1 with SportingBet