Gold Cup Preview

The Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup is the most prestigous race in the National Hunt racing calendar.

Reigning champion and ante-post favourite Denman was deposed by Kauto Star at the head of the market following a lacklustre return at Kempton.  There were excuses regarding fitness and an unsuitable track but our advice is to swerve Denman following his heart scare.

Former champion and stablemate Kauto Star is now a best priced 2-1 withCorals but will have to defy an astonishing stat to retain his crown - horses beaten in the Gold Cup before are 1/58 since 1994!

Admittedly this would rule out most of the main protaganists and someone has to win so dont dwell too long on that stat and focus on some more pertinent facts.

The last 11 winners had all raced between 2 and 5 times that season, again this puts a line through Denman having only had one run.

All of the last ten winners, and 14 of the last 15, were aged 7-9, Cool Dawn the exception springing a 25-1 surprise back in 1998 so discount The Listener, War of Attrition and Snoopy Loopy if they line up.

9 of the last eleven winners had won or been placed at a previous Festival which takes out Denman conqueror Madison du Berlais.

This years Gold Cup is more open than the betting suggests.  Kauto’s cramped odds and doubts surrounding Denman point us towards Exotic Dancer.  Okay, he’s a few miles on the clock and was beaten fairly and squarely in the last 2 runnings of the Gold Cup but he looked a different animal when cantering all over Neptune Collonges prior to the grey’s fall at Leopardstown and with McCoy in the saddle he represents the value call at 12-1 with Ladbrokes.